Liberia's Election: Runoff Imminent

Liberia’s presidential elections, it is now clear, will proceed to a runoff as President George Weah and former Vice President Joseph Boakai remain in a neck-and-neck race that’s too close to call and too far from an outright victory.

With 92.82% of votes counted, Boakai closed a 3,581-vote deficit to overtake Weah with just 800 votes, according to data from the National Elections Commission as of October 16. 

The former Vice President is leading with 748,463 votes, constituting 43.70%, while Weah closely trails with 747,578 votes, which make up 43.65%. 

This comes after he had trailed Weah for the past three days — significantly reducing the President's vote margin from the highest of 13,758 on Oct. 14 — which now paved his narrowed lead as 5,467 polling places out of a total of 5,890 have been tallied. 

The nail-biting contest between the two has produced one of the slimmest margins in post-war Liberian history, keeping the nation on tenterhooks as they await the final outcome. The competitive trend of the results has raised the likelihood of a runoff, as neither candidate might reach the required threshold of 50.1% of the vote, which would secure an outright victory. 

Liberia had gone to the polls on October 10, with registered voters of 2.4 million and with a little over 1.8 million votes tallied so far — both frontrunners who need more than 400k votes to win the elections in the first round — which could take the number of their votes to slightly above 1.2 million. 

However, both Weah and Boakai have nearly exhausted the votes in their respective strongholds, with Montserrado and Margibi counties remaining as the deciding factor with the largest share of polling places remaining, 423 in total. 

And since the announcement of results began on October 11, they have not been able to secure even a 10,000-vote margin in a single day in Montserrado or Margibi counties. The results have been fiercely competitive — helping them to consistently take turns at the top spot. 

Weah led the charge for three consecutive days after Boakai topped for two days as well. Now, it is the former Vice President who as of October 16 data, is in the lead with a margin of only 800 votes. 

According to analysts, the failure of Boakai or Weah to have significantly dominated Montserrado County, which has the national largest share of votes around one million, has been the main reason for their seesaw battle since. 

At current, Boakai is leading Montserrado County with 876 votes difference, which is the result of 1,959 polling places out of 2008 — constituting 97.56%. 

The former Vice President's total vote share so far is 313,372, constituting 46.36% while Weah is following closely with 312,496, constituting 46.23%. In Margibi County, the situation is slightly the same as Boakai leads with 6,794 votes out of 246 polling places that have been tallied out of 441. 

In Margibi, Boakai has obtained a vote of 36,856, constituting 49.10% while Weah is a little distance behind with 30,062 votes, constituting 40.05%. As of the Oct. 16 data of the electoral body, Weah is leading in Bong, Grand Bassa, Rivercess, Sinoe, Grand Gedeh, Rivergee, Grand Kru, and Maryland Counties; while Boakai has Nimba, Lofa, Margibi, Montserrado, Bomi, Grand Cape Mount, and Gbarpolu Counties under his clot. 

Adding complexity to the situation is the presence of other candidates such as Edward W. Appleton of the Grassroots Development Movement, a relatively new political party, which has managed to secure around 37,065 votes -- constituting 2.16%share of the total little over 1.8 million tallied.

Appleton’s share of votes surpasses that of other contenders, including Alexander Cummings, Cllr. Taiwan Gongloe, and Dr. Clarence Moniba, all of whom were initially expected to perform far better in the elections. 

Next is Lusinee Kamara, who has secured a share of 34, 317, constituting 2.00% of the total vote, while Gongloe is in fifth place with  around1.66%, and Cummings comes sixth, with around1.64% share of votes. 

These candidates, even though their vote share may be small, according to analysts, have significantly chipped away voters from Weah and Boakai — narrowing their chances of an outright victory in the first round of voting — which has heightened the possibilities of a runoff as it happened during the 2017 presidential election, in which Weah, then an opposition candidate, emerged victorious in the run-off. 

The results of a close race are indicative of a nation deeply divided between two experienced leaders with differing visions for Liberia's future. 

Tribal loyalties have also played a prominent role in helping narrow the contest between the President and his archrival, as well as the strong grassroots support of their respective vice presidential candidates. 

Additionally, the endorsements of some influential political figures who hold significant tribal appeal in their respective counties have also contributed to the fierce competition.

Weah, a former international football star, has been in office since January 2018 and is running for re-election on a platform that highlights his achievements during his first term, including infrastructure development and economic reform.

He has emphasized his commitment to continue these policies and bring further prosperity to Liberia. 

On the other hand, Boakai, who served as Vice President under former President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, is presenting himself as an experienced statesman capable of addressing the nation's needs in a different way. His campaign has focused on issues such as healthcare, education, and social welfare.

County	Number of polling places	PERCENTAGE TALLIED	PERCENTAGE WON BY JNB	PERCENTAGE WON BY GMW
BOMI COUNTY	170/171	99.42%	25,258    (52.69%)	18,152 37.86%
BONG	553/555	99.64%	67,124 (38.35%)	76,776 43.87%
GBARPOLU	134/134	100%	16,703 VOTES   (44.53%)	15,247 VOTES   40.65%
GRAND BASSA	343/405	84.69%	31,498 VOTES (35.03%)	39,348 VOTES (43.76%)
GRAND CAPE MOUNT	143/213	69.01%	19,503 VOTES (45.04%)	17,866 VOTES   (41.26%)
GRAND GEDEH	161/163	98.77%	4,638 VOTES (10.53%)	34,419 VOTES (78.16%)
GRAND RKU	109/110	99.09%	2,556VOTES (8.39%)	24,222 (79.55%)
LOFA	424/424	100%	73,761 VOTES (56.16%)	35,951 VOTES (27.37%)
MARGIBI	246/441	55.87%	38,856 VOTES (49.10%)	30,062  VOTES (40.02%)
MARYLAND	167/175	95.43%	5,920 VOTES (11.13%)	34,990 VOTES (73.03%)
MONTSERRADO	1559/2008	97.56%	313,371  VOTES (46.36%)	312,496 (46.23%)
NIMBA	732/736	99.59%	137,433 VOTES (59.53%)	50,269 VOTES (21.77%)
RIVERCESS	105/105	100%	(24.71%)	15,398 VOTES (58.530%)
RIVER GEE	96/98	(97.96%)	16.22%	19,130 VOTES (70.27%)
SINOE	120/152	98.95%	3,421  VOTES  (11.44%)	23,352 VOTES (77.76%)