Liberia: As CPP Falls Apart, Concerns Mount in Opposition Quarters

The four political leaders of the CPP (from left): Alexander B. Cummings (ANC), Benoni W. Urey (ALP), Senator Nyonblee Karnga Lawrence (LP), and former Vice President of Liberia, Joseph N. Boakai (UP)

Fierce infighting eroding chance for 2023 victory -- an analysis

As Liberian Opposition leaders remain engaged in a fierce battle for leverage, there are growing concerns within their ranks that the internecine political warfare, if left unchecked, may come to ruin their collective or individual chances for victory in 2023. 

The brewing political turmoil within the opposition Collaborating Political Parties (CPP) has reached a boiling point. The heated battle has degenerated into a rivalry which has torn the coalition to the seams with clear signs of fragmentation and eventual disintegration. With growing disenchantment amongst their most ardent supporters, there are mounting fears within many quarters that the current course of events points to a shrinking support base. As their eyes remain fixed on the prize, opposition leaders appear to be somewhat remiss to the repercussions of their bitter division which by all indications, serves to benefit their common opponent – the incumbent Congress for Democratic Change (CDC). 

Background 

The current stalemate emanated from a longstanding feud regarding the alleged alteration of the CPP Framework Document. The agreement was entered to seal a bond amongst the four major Liberian opposition parties including the Unity Party (UP), Liberty Party (LP), Alternative National Congress (ANC) and the All Liberian Party (ALP) in a concerted bid to unseat the incumbent CDC in the impending 2023 general elections.  CPP leaders allied to former Vice President Joseph N. Boakai of the UP alleged that somehow the ANC Political Leader Mr. Alexander B. Cummings orchestrated the altering of the CPP agreement submitted to the National Elections Commission (NEC). Boakai and Cummings have been embroiled in a fierce two-way battle for the CPP Presidential nomination. 

Ongoing Stalemate

The powder keg of disintegration was ignited in an explosive moment in early January when criminal charges of document forgery were brought against Mr. Cummings. The charges were bought by his estranged CPP colleague Benoni Urey, Political Leader of the ALP, who signaled the dismemberment of the CPP with the withdrawal of his party from the coalition. As the inter-party battle between the ANC and ALP makes it way through the courts, there is also an intra-party legal battle within the LP regarding their own version of document tampering. LP announced its endorsement of Mr. Cummings after a controversial convention held on December 21 in Ganta, Nimba County where top party leaders and legislators were excluded. 

On the sidelines, Mr. Cummings supporters see a silent Boakai wielding a hidden hand behind the ALP, in a rather vicious move to vanquish his rival by court action while offering an unsolicited advantage to their common foes in the CDC administration. On the other end, Boakai supporters see the shadow and machinations of a crafty Cummings cast over the fractured hierarchy of the Liberty Party. The bitter rivalry in the once-promising coalition has triggered confusion and dashed the hopes of their supporters who turned out in large numbers in a series of sweeping victories for the CPP. By all indications, what is now perceived as bare-knuckled maneuvers on both sides, whether contrived or condoned, may eventually amount to undesirable results.  

Prospects

As opposition supporters remain confounded by the turn of events in the political arena, advisors on both ends of the political spectrum remain stuck to their guns, believing on each side, that only their individual candidate offers a sure chance of victory against the incumbent CDC. This logic has propelled a stubborn agenda on both ends that if victory is not guaranteed for their individual candidacies in the proposed CPP nomination process, then separation should be the alternative. Against the principles of democracy, both sides also appear averse to competition in their demand that the opposing candidate should simply drop out. Cummings supporters believe Boakai should drop out because of old age. For their part, Boakai supporters fervently believe that Cummings should concede in exchange for the Vice Presidency because of the lack of base or familiarity to the ground. With this zero-sum approach on both ends, it is fair to conclude that collaboration at the presidential level was a dead issue before it even pretended to be alive. 

Political insiders in both the Cummings and Boakai camps acknowledge from experience that outside the CPP, their preferred candidate cannot win outright in the first round of the general elections in 2023. However, they remain intransigent based upon a belief that their preferred candidate can somehow eke out at least second place in the first round against the CDC. With this assumption, each side is riding on the lofty hope that their candidate will automatically attract the host of all opposition voters in a decisive second-round victory. What opposition leaders and their advisors have failed to recognize is the potential impact of the growing disenchantment among voters in the wake of their vicious infighting. A prolonged battle with incendiary overtones is sure to create hardcore resentment which may spill over into the second round where all forces will be badly needed to mount a concerted rally for victory. Quite simple - it is politically unwise to fight a war of Armageddon against an opponent if you will need his support in the near run. 

As deadly blows are being hurled from one direction to the other, voters are witnessing the tone-deaf disposition of opposition leaders and their advisors with simmering distrust in many quarters. Questions now abound about the individual sincerity of the political leaders in entering the coalition agreement, or more importantly, the will to achieve their common goal of unseating President Weah.   

In their desperate rush for leverage, opposition players appear to only focus on the glaring failures of President Weah as their path to victory, while underestimating the loyalty of his base, and the advantages given by the privileges of incumbency. In their assumption, they should be keen to reckon with the fact that within the opposition, there are elements who may be later influenced by ideological or pecuniary reasons to join ranks with the ruling party. Such a move could possibly tilt the balance in the second round.  

Voter Participation Factor

In their individual quests, opposition leaders have also failed to recognize the fact that while the “proposition” of democracy proclaims rule by the majority, the “practice” of democracy gives governance to the “majority of those who participate” in the democratic process. The results of the previous presidential elections offer a keen perspective to this reality. 

According to official results from the National Elections Commission (NEC), 1,641,922 voters (75% of electorate) participated in the first round of the 2017 Presidential Elections.  In a crowded field, President George Weah (CDC) garnered 596,037 (38%) votes, while the rest of the contestants led by former VP Joseph Boakai (UP) together gained an overwhelming 1,045,885 (62%) votes combined. On his own, Boakai received 446,716 votes (28%).

The erosion of Voter’s enthusiasm in the wake of political confusion became a factor in the second round when voter turnout dwindled to 1,218,124 voters (56% of electorate) – a dramatic reduction by 423,798 votes.  In the second round, Mr. Boakai only managed to gain a mere addition of 10,863 votes and ended with a final count of 457,579 (38%).  Consequently, the absence of over 400 thousand non-Weah/CDC voters at the polls dealt a fatal blow to the chances of a Boakai victory. With more enthusiasm on his side, Weah (CDC) gained 732,185 (62%), adding 136,146 votes to his first-round numbers, thus pulling a convincing victory over Boakai (UP).  

Against this backdrop of historical facts, the potential of voters’ apathy leading to an eventual low turnout on the side of the opposition, signals a chance for victory by the incumbent administration. The toxic political climate may give way to the possibility of more entrants into the presidential race. It can be expected that the opposition arena which also include the political newcomer Dr. Daniel Cassell,  the renowned lawyer Cllr. Tiawon Gongloe, and the veteran diplomat Amb. Nathaniel Barnes, will expand in the months ahead as all bets are now off.

Conclusion

Two years after the consummation of a promising collaboration which yielded successive and convincing victories in dozens of legislative races across the country, the Liberian opposition now appears to be on a fast track towards disintegration and political train wreck. 

The chain of events within the Liberian opposition leading to the break-up of the CPP is not new in the Liberian political experience. It is simply another episode in a series of failed coalitions by Liberian politicians since the onset of second Republic. However, the lessons of history as it relates to voter’s enthusiasm, or apathy, should shed light to the risky road ahead for the Liberian opposition. This enduring reality should offer a more compelling reason for sober reflection among opposition leaders. 

For now, Humpty Dumpty is having a very great fall, and if the vitriol and vicious infighting continues, it will become true that all the king’s horses and men will not be able to put the CPP Humpty together again for victory in 2023. 

ABOUT THE AUTHORJohn F. Lloyd is a renowned leader of the Liberian Diaspora who served as a leading voice on the international front during the Liberian peace process and transition from civil war. He is the Chairman of the All Liberian Diaspora Conference and a former leader of the Liberian Community in Washington DC and ULAA.  Prior to the civil war served as a reporter of the Daily Observer.